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Analysis Of The Impact Of Trade Frictions Between China And The United States On Aluminum Industry
Apr 03, 2018

The proportion of the export ratio of aluminum products is relatively stable

Focus on Vietnam and the United States

Influenced by the export tax rebate policy, China's export aluminum products are mainly aluminum, which can be divided into non Forging Aluminum and aluminum (including aluminum, aluminum sheet, aluminum coil, aluminum strip,  metal and other products). In 2017, China exported 4 million 790 thousand tons of aluminum products, an increase of 4.5% over the same period last year. The corresponding export FOB average price is 2805.8 US dollars / ton, the average premium to LME spot price is 1200 yuan / ton, and the average premium rate is 74%.

In recent years, China's aluminum export volume increased rapidly with the expansion of the raw aluminum production capacity, and the growth trend was basically the same. In 2017, China's aluminum export volume was more than two times in 2011, reaching 4 million 790 thousand tons, and exports reached 13 billion 900 million US dollars. Since 2012, the export of aluminum has always accounted for 13%~15% of the original aluminum output, accounting for a relatively stable proportion.

China's export aluminum products mainly include aluminum strip, aluminum bar, profile and aluminum foil. The aluminum strip accounted for 40% of the total export volume, aluminum rod profiles accounted for 30%, aluminum foil accounted for 25%, and the rest varieties accounted for 5%. From a historical perspective, the proportion of distribution has basically remained stable. But in 2017, the proportion of aluminum strip and strip has increased to nearly 50%, and the share of aluminum products has decreased significantly.

Regional structure is concentrated, and the US and Vietnam share a relatively high proportion. China's exports of aluminum accounted for an increasing share of international trade, and now it has been over 50%. In 2016, 18% of China's aluminum products were exported to North America, 10% exported to Europe, and 37% exported to East Asia and Southeast Asia. In 2016, China's two major destinations for aluminum exports are Vietnam and the United States, accounting for 14.6% and 13.6% of the total export volume, and 15 of the country's exports, which account for 66% of the total export, and the region's export structure is more concentrated.

From the point of view of the export structure of the sub products, the main destinations of all kinds of aluminum export are different. In 2016, the most important export destination for aluminum bar profiles was Vietnam. In 2016, China exported 510 thousand tons of aluminum bar profiles to Vietnam, which was 10 times the export volume of second Philippines. The United States and South Korea were the main destination for China's export of aluminum strip. In 2016 our country exported 360 thousand tons of aluminum strip to the United States and 110 thousand tons to Korea; the United States and India are China's export aluminum foil. The main destination in 2016, China exported 168 thousand tons of aluminum foil to the United States and exported 127 thousand tons to India. Generally speaking, the export destinations of the three main aluminum products are relatively concentrated.