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The SME(China Aluminum Ingot) Analyzing In This Week
Mar 12, 2018

This week the price of aluminum to maintain the trend of shock adjustment, the domestic aluminum processing enterprises have started, but the overall operating rate to rise, have failed to push up the role of price. Due to the NDRC relevant personnel during the speech, soaring prices temporarily. On Friday, the negative impact of US trade protection policy, market pessimism warming, commodity tumbled, and aluminum prices also fell. As of Friday, Shanghai aluminum main 1805 contract newspaper received 14075 yuan / ton, and the weekly fall was 2.43%. For the prediction of the aluminum price next week, the number of analysts who saw shocks accounted for nearly half of the total. The bearish analysts followed closely. Relatively speaking, the bullish analysts accounted for only 10%.


For bullish analysts, consumption shows signs of warming after a rebound in the lower reaches of the lower reaches. In February, exports continue to be strong, customs data show that in February unwrought aluminum and aluminum exports 372 thousand tons, 1-2 months of total exports of 817 thousand tons, an increase of 25.8%, which has a direct relationship with the internal and external price decline, exports increased reflects foreign consumption increase, reflecting the overall recovery of overseas economy strong, aluminum prices are still with rising momentum.


In the view of the bearish analysts, domestic supply continues to pick up, because new capacity is still running continuously, while the deficit companies still have no intention of reducing production, and the operation capacity is rising continuously. The domestic stock continued to rise this week, and the stock of aluminum ingot up to more than 2 million 200 thousand tons, but overall, stock growth slowed slightly. The price of alumina has fallen by more than 100 yuan / ton after the holiday. The price of coal has continued to decline since February, resulting in the reduction of the cost of electrolytic aluminum over 300 yuan / ton. The recession is still an important reason for the weak aluminum price.


There are signs that the performance of the present aluminum market is generally better. At present, the market will still have a general psychological barrier of 14000 yuan positioning. When approaching this line, businesses will have an increase in the number of bargain buyers, and the demand will significantly improve in the case of a significant downward link in the middle and late week of the aluminum price. From the technical indicators, the current operation in Shanghai aluminum were below average, the average showed a downward trend, MACD indicators bearish, DIFF and DEA lines in the zero axis following form Sicha, KDJ index to oversold on display around Shanghai aluminum will be difficult to reverse the short-term fear.


The tax storm led to a slight weakness in the trend of Lun aluminum, but the Trump tax storm was not over. The policy is provided to side reform and environmental protection, but it seems that the price has not been affected too much. In the middle of March, will the price of aluminum continue the weak trend of shock? Please continue to pay attention to the aluminum price investigation of aluminum letter next week.